Business Energy Costs 2026: What Rising Prices Mean for Large Commercial Portfolios
A Smarta Energy market perspective, accurate as of 12th May 2026
Energy costs are rising again, but the picture is not as simple as a return to the extreme market conditions seen during the energy crisis.
For large commercial portfolios, the challenge in 2026 is more nuanced. Wholesale prices remain exposed to geopolitical risk, supply disruption, weather movement and system volatility. At the same time, longer-dated pricing can sometimes tell a different story to the short-term market, creating both risk and opportunity depending on when, how and what a business is buying.
The result is a market where energy can no longer be managed as a basic renewal exercise. For organisations operating large estates, multiple meters, complex portfolios or high-consumption sites, energy has become a financial, operational and infrastructure issue.
At Smarta Energy, our view is clear: the businesses best placed to manage the current environment will be those that move beyond reactive procurement and take a more structured approach to energy strategy.
The market has stabilised, but it has not normalised
Official data shows that industrial energy prices are no longer at the peak levels seen during the height of the energy crisis. The UK Government’s March 2026 Quarterly Energy Prices publication reported that electricity prices for manufacturing consumers decreased by 7.9% between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025, reaching an average of 16.8p/kWh. Gas prices for the same sector fell by 11.6% over the same period, to 3.5p/kWh.
However, this does not mean energy risk has disappeared. For large commercial portfolios, the issue is not simply whether average prices are higher or lower than they were last year. The more important question is how exposed each site, meter and contract is to future movement.
A business with multiple sites may have some contracts protected, others approaching renewal, and others exposed to pass-through charges or changing consumption patterns. This creates a more complex risk profile than a single headline market figure can explain.
In other words, the market may have stabilised compared with the crisis period, but it has not returned to a simple or predictable environment.
The market is telling two different stories
One of the defining features of the current market is the difference between short-term pressure and longer-term opportunity.
Smarta Energy’s latest internal market analysis shows that near-term gas and power markets remain sensitive to several active drivers, including colder weather conditions, supply-side maintenance, LNG availability, geopolitical uncertainty and generation mix. These factors can create short-term volatility and support upward pressure when market confidence is disrupted.
At the same time, the picture further along the curve can be more balanced. Longer-dated contracts may not always move in the same way as prompt or near-term pricing. This creates an important distinction for large commercial users: “energy prices are rising” is not a single, uniform market message.
For businesses with upcoming renewals, the question is not simply whether to buy now or wait. The more valuable question is whether the contract structure, timing, purchasing approach and risk position are aligned with the organisation’s operational and financial objectives.
This is where market intelligence becomes critical. Without active monitoring, businesses can easily react to short-term sentiment while missing opportunities further along the curve.
Non-commodity costs are reshaping the final bill
For many large commercial portfolios, the most significant energy cost pressure is not always the wholesale unit rate. A growing proportion of the final electricity bill is made up of non-commodity charges. These include network costs, policy costs, balancing costs and other charges associated with operating, maintaining and transforming the UK energy system.
Cornwall Insight has forecast that by 2026, non-commodity charges will make up nearly 60% of a typical business electricity bill. It also identifies rising network and policy-related costs as a major factor shaping business energy bills in 2026.
This matters because wholesale prices can fall without businesses seeing equivalent reductions in the final amount paid. A site may secure a competitive commodity price but still experience higher overall costs due to non-commodity movement, network charging structures or consumption profile.
For large commercial portfolios, this makes total cost analysis essential. Focusing only on the headline unit rate can lead to poor decision-making, because it does not show the full cost exposure across the estate.
A more effective procurement strategy must consider the full delivered cost of energy, not simply the commodity component.
Grid pressure is becoming a business constraint
Energy cost is no longer the only issue. Access to energy capacity is becoming increasingly important. In March 2026, the UK Government published a consultation on accelerating electricity network connections for strategic demand. The consultation focuses on improving the connections process and prioritising future capacity for strategic demand, including data centres. It also highlights the wider challenge created by growing electricity demand as the UK economy continues to electrify.
This is directly relevant to large commercial portfolios.
Businesses planning site expansion, EV charging, electrification of heat, manufacturing growth, data-heavy operations or new developments may increasingly need to consider whether existing infrastructure can support future demand. Energy availability is becoming part of estate planning, not just procurement.
For commercial property owners, this may affect tenant demand and asset value. For developers, it may influence project viability and timescales. For manufacturers and operational estates, it may shape investment decisions and site strategy.
The organisations that understand their future capacity requirements early will be better positioned than those that wait until connection constraints become a barrier.
Solar and on-site generation are becoming commercial decisions
The growth of solar and low-carbon generation is also changing the conversation. The International Energy Agency’s Global Energy Review 2026 found that solar PV met more than a quarter of global primary energy demand growth in 2025, making it the largest single source of growth. Natural gas followed, contributing around 17% of global demand growth.
For large commercial portfolios, this matters because on-site generation is no longer purely a sustainability consideration. It is increasingly being assessed as a commercial tool for reducing grid reliance, improving cost control and strengthening resilience.
Solar PV, battery energy storage and hybrid approaches will not be suitable for every site. However, for organisations with large roof space, consistent daytime demand, land availability or high electricity consumption, the business case may be increasingly relevant.
The key point is that procurement and on-site generation should not be viewed separately. A business that understands both its buying strategy and its consumption profile is in a stronger position to assess whether generating power on-site could reduce exposure over the long term.
Why large commercial portfolios need a different approach
Large portfolios face a different level of complexity to single-site organisations. They often have multiple suppliers, contract end dates, billing arrangements, consumption patterns, meters and operational requirements. One site may be nearing renewal. Another may have high out-of-hours consumption. Another may have inaccurate billing data. Another may be suitable for solar, battery storage or efficiency improvements. You can see the confusion and stress waiting to happen.
If each of these issues is managed separately, opportunities can be missed. If they are managed together, energy becomes something the business can actively control. This is why a portfolio-level approach is essential, and less-stressful for all if we are being honest.
A strong energy strategy should bring together procurement, consumption data, billing accuracy, market timing, risk management, efficiency opportunities and infrastructure planning. Without this joined-up view, businesses can end up making decisions based on incomplete information.
For large commercial portfolios, the aim should not simply be to buy energy at the right time. It should be to reduce avoidable cost, improve visibility, manage risk and identify where long-term resilience can be built into the estate.
What businesses should be reviewing now
The current market conditions make 2026 an important year for strategic review. Large commercial portfolios should be asking whether they have clear visibility of their contract positions, renewal dates, consumption patterns, billing accuracy, non-commodity exposure and future capacity requirements.
They should also consider whether their current procurement approach reflects the way the market now behaves. A fixed contract may offer valuable budget certainty for some organisations. A more flexible or actively managed strategy may be more appropriate for others. The right approach depends on risk appetite, governance, consumption profile, budget expectations and market timing.
Data is equally important. If an organisation is still making energy decisions based mainly on invoices, estimated reads or historic usage, it is likely to be reacting rather than managing. Real visibility allows businesses to identify waste, spot anomalies, improve forecasting and make more informed procurement decisions.
Finally, businesses should assess whether energy infrastructure needs to form part of the wider strategy. This may include on-site generation, battery storage, demand reduction, metering improvements or longer-term capacity planning.
Smarta Energy’s perspective
At Smarta Energy, we believe energy procurement is the starting point, not the end goal. The current market is too complex for large commercial portfolios to treat energy as an administrative renewal. Wholesale movement, non-commodity costs, grid constraints, consumption behaviour and infrastructure decisions are now interconnected. Our role is to help businesses understand that full picture, without adding to the stress levels they already face.
We support organisations with electricity and gas procurement, market insight, bureau services, billing support, energy monitoring, consumption reduction, on-site generation opportunities and infrastructure-led solutions, the whole package.
That means helping businesses move from reactive cost management to a more proactive strategy, one that considers how energy is bought, used, managed and delivered.
Energy costs are rising again in 2026, but the real issue is broader than price alone. The businesses that respond most effectively will be those that understand the full cost of energy, actively manage their market position and take practical steps to reduce long-term exposure.
For large commercial portfolios, now is the time to review the strategy behind the spend.
Take control of your energy strategy
If your business manages a large commercial portfolio, now is the time to review before your next renewal date.
Smarta Energy can help you understand your current position, assess market risk, identify opportunities to reduce consumption, and build a procurement strategy that supports long-term cost control and resilience. Not only that, but we can help shoulder the burden and stress, leaving you more time to focus on running your business.
Get in touch with Smarta Energy to review your electricity and gas procurement strategy.
Business Energy Costs 2026: Key Points
Short-term gas and power prices are still reacting to weather, LNG supply, geopolitical uncertainty, Norwegian maintenance, nuclear availability and wind generation
The prompt/near-term market is under pressure, while longer-dated pricing can offer a different opportunity
Total bills are still under pressure because of non-commodity costs
Cornwall Insight forecast that by 2026, non-commodity charges will make up nearly 60% of a typical business electricity bill
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